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Species · BCR 3 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater Scaup In BCR 3

All regionsBCR 3Waterfowl

Greater Scaup in BCR 3 has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+1%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Greater Scaup in BCR 3. See the full index history below.

Greater Scaup In BCR 3 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Scaup in BCR 3 is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 0.00–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Scaup in BCR 3 is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 0.00–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.50.009.2
20274.50.009.3
20284.50.009.3
20294.50.009.3
20304.50.009.3

Routes In BCR 3

Routes recording Greater Scaup in BCR 3.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy ValleyALASKA372025
Galbraith L.ALASKA72025
UtqiagvikALASKA62023
Red DogALASKA22024
Dietrich CmpALASKA12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.