BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Sage-Grouse In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Greater Sage-Grouse in Great Basin has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-53%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Sage-Grouse has fallen sharply in Great Basin: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Greater Sage-Grouse In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Sage-Grouse in Great Basin is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±357.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±357.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Sage-Grouse in Great Basin is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±357.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.56
20260.110.000.55
20270.110.000.55
20280.100.000.54
20290.100.000.54

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Greater Sage-Grouse in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EurekaNEVADA242024
Calico SprNEVADA181974
BlitzenOREGON161992
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA142021
Sheldon NwrNEVADA122018
Three ForksOREGON112024
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA81989
Circular BuIDAHO82024
PicaboIDAHO71988
Dobbin CreekNEVADA72017
AustinNEVADA72012
CratersIDAHO62012
Mud LakeIDAHO62001
Kyle CanyonIDAHO62003
Battle MtnOREGON61999
CareyIDAHO52016
Tractor FlatIDAHO52019
Majors PlaceNEVADA51989
Bald Mtn.NEVADA52014
Flook LakeOREGON52024
Grouse CreekUTAH51987
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA41978
VernonUTAH42009
Dinner StaNEVADA31992
IllipahNEVADA32018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.