BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater Sage-Grouse In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGame birds

Greater Sage-Grouse in Great Basin has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-6%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Greater Sage-Grouse in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Greater Sage-Grouse In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Sage-Grouse in Great Basin is projected to fall about 77% by 2030 — from 0.54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±342.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-77%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±342.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Sage-Grouse in Great Basin is projected to fall about 77% by 2030 — from 0.54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±342.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.59
20270.140.000.59
20280.140.000.58
20290.130.000.58
20300.130.000.57

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Greater Sage-Grouse in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three ForksOREGON252025
EurekaNEVADA242024
CareyIDAHO232025
Calico SprNEVADA181974
BlitzenOREGON161992
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA142021
BodieCALIFORNIA132025
Sheldon NwrNEVADA122018
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA81989
Circular BuIDAHO82024
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA72025
PicaboIDAHO71988
Dobbin CreekNEVADA72017
AustinNEVADA72012
CratersIDAHO62012
Mud LakeIDAHO62001
Kyle CanyonIDAHO62003
Battle MtnOREGON61999
Tractor FlatIDAHO52019
Majors PlaceNEVADA51989
Bald Mtn.NEVADA52014
Grouse CreekUTAH51987
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA41978
VernonUTAH42009
Dinner StaNEVADA31992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.