BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Sage-Grouse In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Greater Sage-Grouse in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-94%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Sage-Grouse has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Greater Sage-Grouse In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Sage-Grouse in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±203.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Sage-Grouse in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.20
20250.000.000.20
20260.000.000.20
20270.000.000.20
20280.000.000.20

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Greater Sage-Grouse in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
M Warner ResUTAH62013
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO52018
Black Sulphur CrCOLORADO52022
Willow CreekUTAH41998
WaldenCOLORADO22017
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH22023
VernalUTAH22018
Lost Cr. ResUTAH22012
WarbonnetWYOMING22012
Wilson CreekCOLORADO12016
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO12013
DinosaurCOLORADO12016
AltonahUTAH11982
BonanzaUTAH11996
Moon LakeUTAH12003
Dixie NfUTAH12016
Heber Mtn.UTAH12023
Moon Lake 2UTAH12019
AltonUTAH12010
BrookhurstWYOMING12010
Sybille CynWYOMING12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.