BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater Sage-Grouse In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGame birds

Greater Sage-Grouse in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-90%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Sage-Grouse has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Greater Sage-Grouse In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Sage-Grouse in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±170.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Sage-Grouse in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.20
20260.000.000.20
20270.000.000.20
20280.000.000.20
20290.000.000.20

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Greater Sage-Grouse in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH62024
M Warner ResUTAH62013
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO52018
Black Sulphur CrCOLORADO52022
Willow CreekUTAH41998
WaldenCOLORADO22017
VernalUTAH22018
Lost Cr. ResUTAH22012
WarbonnetWYOMING22012
Wilson CreekCOLORADO12016
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO12013
DinosaurCOLORADO12016
AltonahUTAH11982
BonanzaUTAH11996
Moon LakeUTAH12003
Dixie NfUTAH12016
Heber Mtn.UTAH12023
Moon Lake 2UTAH12019
AltonUTAH12010
BrookhurstWYOMING12010
Sybille CynWYOMING12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.