BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Greater Sage-Grouse In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGame birds

Greater Sage-Grouse in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-63%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Greater Sage-Grouse has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Greater Sage-Grouse In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Sage-Grouse in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 82% by 2030 — from 0.96 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-82%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±120.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Sage-Grouse in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 82% by 2030 — from 0.96 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.001.4
20270.230.001.4
20280.210.001.4
20290.190.001.3
20300.170.001.3

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Greater Sage-Grouse in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ErvayWYOMING362025
E. Bear LakeUTAH292025
Big SandyWYOMING232025
LamontWYOMING222025
Elk HornWYOMING172018
FrannieWYOMING172023
Great DivideCOLORADO142025
SeedskadeeWYOMING142015
RyegrassWYOMING122024
DiamondvilleWYOMING111981
ShirleyWYOMING92006
Patrick Draw 2WYOMING91981
RelianceWYOMING81981
Patrick Draw 5WYOMING72009
NowoodWYOMING62024
RiversideWYOMING61971
BairoilWYOMING62025
BeaverheadMONTANA51988
RandolphUTAH52013
Saleratus CrUTAH52018
MeeteetseWYOMING52019
ArmintoWYOMING52025
SweetwaterWYOMING52009
GeboWYOMING42019
FarsonWYOMING42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.