BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Pewee In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Greater Pewee in Sierra Madre Occidental has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+9%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Greater Pewee in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Greater Pewee in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Pewee in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.61
20260.190.000.61
20270.180.000.61
20280.180.000.60
20290.180.000.60

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Greater Pewee in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PortalARIZONA92024
Mt. GrahamARIZONA42023
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
SunizonaARIZONA21983
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22023
PrescottARIZONA12019
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12013
Carr MtnARIZONA12004
SprucedaleARIZONA12021
RuckerARIZONA12009
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.