BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great-tailed Grackle In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWetland birds

Great-tailed Grackle in Great Basin has surged: up 550% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+550%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great-tailed Grackle in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Great-tailed Grackle In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Great Basin is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Great Basin is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.09
20270.040.000.09
20280.050.000.09
20290.050.000.10
20300.050.000.10

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HikoNEVADA62025
CallaoUTAH42016
EurekaNEVADA32011
WillisNEVADA32024
Meadow VallyNEVADA32025
NubieberCALIFORNIA12014
BentonCALIFORNIA12003
LikelyCALIFORNIA11993
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA12018
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA11996
DorrisCALIFORNIA12019
Mud LakeIDAHO12017
Majors PlaceNEVADA11989
Dobbin CreekNEVADA12017
Ruby ValleyNEVADA12000
FallonNEVADA12023
Gardnerville 2NEVADA12018
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA12016
Fandango CanOREGON12011
GoshenUTAH12025
Bear RiverUTAH12025
Pine CreekUTAH12000
NewcastleUTAH12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.