BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in Great Basin has surged: up 217% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+217%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great-tailed Grackle in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Great-tailed Grackle In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Great Basin is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±193.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±193.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Great Basin is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±193.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.08
20260.030.000.08
20270.030.000.08
20280.040.000.08
20290.040.000.08

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GoshenUTAH42024
CallaoUTAH42016
EurekaNEVADA32011
WillisNEVADA32024
Meadow VallyNEVADA22024
NubieberCALIFORNIA12014
BentonCALIFORNIA12003
LikelyCALIFORNIA11993
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA12018
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA11996
DorrisCALIFORNIA12019
Mud LakeIDAHO12017
Majors PlaceNEVADA11989
Dobbin CreekNEVADA12017
HikoNEVADA12014
Ruby ValleyNEVADA12000
FallonNEVADA12023
Gardnerville 2NEVADA12018
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA12016
Fandango CanOREGON12011
Bear RiverUTAH12023
Pine CreekUTAH12000
NewcastleUTAH12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.