BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great-tailed Grackle In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertWetland birds

Great-tailed Grackle in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

15×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great-tailed Grackle has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Great-tailed Grackle In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 3.2–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 3.2–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.52.96.1
20274.63.06.2
20284.73.16.3
20294.73.16.4
20304.83.26.4

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO452025
JornadaNEW-MEXICO162025
CanutilloTEXAS162025
RodeoNEW-MEXICO132025
ToyahvaleTEXAS132018
Ft. StocktonTEXAS122024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO101977
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO102019
DemingNEW-MEXICO61974
Van HornTEXAS62025
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS52009
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO42025
GirvinTEXAS42025
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS42025
GageNEW-MEXICO32024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO32000
PinonNEW-MEXICO32009
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO32025
MarathonTEXAS32023
Red RockNEW-MEXICO22012
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO22024
ComstockTEXAS22025
LongfellowTEXAS22021
Delaware CrkTEXAS22009
Devils R CynTEXAS22013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.