BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great-tailed Grackle In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsWetland birds

Great-tailed Grackle in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 813% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+813%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great-tailed Grackle has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 813% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Great-tailed Grackle In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 220% by 2030 — from 7.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 11–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+220%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±155.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 220% by 2030 — from 7.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 11–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026249.238
2027249.539
2028259.939
2029251039
2030251140

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA1372010
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA1002025
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA932018
BrawleyCALIFORNIA912012
LagunaARIZONA902023
ArabyARIZONA712023
BlytheCALIFORNIA542003
Cactus ForestARIZONA502025
Parker DamCALIFORNIA452007
Casa GrandeARIZONA432023
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA362013
HopeARIZONA262009
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA242025
Palo VerdeARIZONA192013
Hope 2ARIZONA192019
FlorenceARIZONA171988
NilandCALIFORNIA172025
BeattyNEVADA162024
VicksburgARIZONA141989
OatmanARIZONA132025
Cibola LakeARIZONA122024
Ajo 2ARIZONA112022
Red Rock 2ARIZONA112024
Organ PipeARIZONA92023
RivieraARIZONA72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.