BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 969% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+969%Since 1970
52Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Great-tailed Grackle has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 969% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 183% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 12–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+183%Change by 2029
26Projected 2029 index
12–4095% range
±123.7%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025251039
2026251139
2027251139
2028261240
2029261240

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA1372010
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA932024
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA932018
BrawleyCALIFORNIA912012
LagunaARIZONA902023
Cactus ForestARIZONA722024
ArabyARIZONA712023
BlytheCALIFORNIA542003
Parker DamCALIFORNIA452007
Casa GrandeARIZONA432023
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA362013
HopeARIZONA262009
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA262024
NilandCALIFORNIA262024
Palo VerdeARIZONA192013
Hope 2ARIZONA192019
FlorenceARIZONA171988
BeattyNEVADA162024
VicksburgARIZONA141989
RivieraARIZONA122024
Cibola LakeARIZONA122024
Ajo 2ARIZONA112022
Red Rock 2ARIZONA112024
Organ PipeARIZONA92023
Alamo Res.ARIZONA52018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.