BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 969% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+969%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great-tailed Grackle has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 969% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Great-tailed Grackle In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 183% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 12–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+183%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±123.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 183% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 12–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025251039
2026251139
2027251139
2028261240
2029261240

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA1372010
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA932024
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA932018
BrawleyCALIFORNIA912012
LagunaARIZONA902023
Cactus ForestARIZONA722024
ArabyARIZONA712023
BlytheCALIFORNIA542003
Parker DamCALIFORNIA452007
Casa GrandeARIZONA432023
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA362013
HopeARIZONA262009
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA262024
NilandCALIFORNIA262024
Palo VerdeARIZONA192013
Hope 2ARIZONA192019
FlorenceARIZONA171988
BeattyNEVADA162024
VicksburgARIZONA141989
RivieraARIZONA122024
Cibola LakeARIZONA122024
Ajo 2ARIZONA112022
Red Rock 2ARIZONA112024
Organ PipeARIZONA92023
Alamo Res.ARIZONA52018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.