BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+163%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great-tailed Grackle has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Great-tailed Grackle In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 97% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-97%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 97% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.001.9
20260.100.001.8
20270.080.001.8
20280.060.001.8
20290.040.001.8

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chandler 2TEXAS382024
Liberty HillTEXAS112023
IndianolaOKLAHOMA92024
LivingstonTEXAS82024
Easton 2TEXAS62021
De QuincyLOUISIANA41999
McalesterOKLAHOMA41991
EastonTEXAS42005
BlancoOKLAHOMA31990
PhillipsOKLAHOMA32005
Union HillTEXAS32024
HopeARKANSAS22022
Big CedarOKLAHOMA21993
SandbluffOKLAHOMA21992
PocolaOKLAHOMA22009
Town BluffTEXAS21983
New WaverlyTEXAS21975
AthensTEXAS22019
ChandlerTEXAS22004
AshdownARKANSAS11989
MassardARKANSAS11990
CanadianOKLAHOMA12015
Lance Rosier BithTEXAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.