BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 225× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

225×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great-tailed Grackle has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 225× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Great-tailed Grackle In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.3–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.3–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.3–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025128.216
2026128.516
2027138.717
2028139.017
2029139.317

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LamesaTEXAS1322024
HookerOKLAHOMA1072024
HobbsNEW-MEXICO842024
PecosTEXAS802017
TwichellTEXAS742023
FrionaTEXAS612024
TenmileTEXAS592019
PlainsTEXAS552017
WakaTEXAS392024
DalhartTEXAS352024
MentoneTEXAS342015
PanhandleTEXAS332024
PlymellKANSAS322024
BethuneCOLORADO312018
KeyesOKLAHOMA302024
MidlandTEXAS292024
GruverTEXAS262024
CactusTEXAS262024
ClaytonvilleTEXAS252022
TexlineTEXAS242024
PostTEXAS222024
KermitTEXAS211999
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO172022
CaprockNEW-MEXICO162024
PantexTEXAS152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.