BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great-tailed Grackle In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

Great-tailed Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 227× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

227×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great-tailed Grackle has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 227× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Great-tailed Grackle In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 9.7–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.7–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 9.7–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026128.616
2027138.817
2028139.117
2029139.417
2030149.718

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HookerOKLAHOMA1242025
HobbsNEW-MEXICO1232025
TwichellTEXAS1002025
PecosTEXAS802017
DalhartTEXAS792025
LamesaTEXAS672025
MidlandTEXAS652025
DoughertyTEXAS612025
TenmileTEXAS592019
PlainsTEXAS552017
FrionaTEXAS412025
WakaTEXAS362025
MentoneTEXAS342015
MiamiTEXAS322025
BethuneCOLORADO312018
KeyesOKLAHOMA302024
TexlineTEXAS282025
ClaytonvilleTEXAS252022
CactusTEXAS242025
PostTEXAS222024
GruverTEXAS222025
KermitTEXAS211999
PanhandleTEXAS212025
RankinTEXAS182025
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO172022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.