BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Kiskadee In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Great Kiskadee in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 442% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+442%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Kiskadee has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 442% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Great Kiskadee In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Kiskadee in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.58–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Kiskadee in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.58–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.501.5
20261.00.521.6
20271.10.541.6
20281.10.561.6
20291.10.581.6

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Great Kiskadee in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS172024
Lag AtascosaTEXAS92024
Loyola BeachTEXAS82009
Goliad PrairieTEXAS22007
PetronilaTEXAS12022
Rock IslandTEXAS12017
San PedroTEXAS12022
Bayside 3TEXAS12017
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.