BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Kiskadee In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Great Kiskadee in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 482% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+482%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Kiskadee has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 482% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Great Kiskadee In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Kiskadee in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.62–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.62–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Kiskadee in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.62–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.551.6
20271.10.571.6
20281.10.581.6
20291.10.601.6
20301.10.621.7

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Great Kiskadee in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lag AtascosaTEXAS122025
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS122025
Loyola BeachTEXAS82009
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA22025
Goliad PrairieTEXAS22007
PetronilaTEXAS12025
Rock IslandTEXAS12017
San PedroTEXAS12022
Moon Lake 2TEXAS12025
Bayside 3TEXAS12017
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.