BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Kiskadee In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Great Kiskadee in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Kiskadee has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Kiskadee in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.1 (95% range 0.98–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.98–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Kiskadee in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.1 (95% range 0.98–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.873.2
20262.10.903.2
20272.10.933.2
20282.10.963.3
20292.10.983.3

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Great Kiskadee in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RaymondvilleTEXAS102024
KingsvilleTEXAS72024
RachalTEXAS52023
ZapataTEXAS51987
ProgresoTEXAS52011
SejitaTEXAS52024
Agua NuevaTEXAS42019
El SauzTEXAS42023
GuerraTEXAS42023
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS42012
CatarinaTEXAS22006
HondoTEXAS22023
Encinal 2TEXAS22023
Catarina 3TEXAS22022
HeidelbergTEXAS22024
RandadoTEXAS12019
Mirando CityTEXAS12024
EncinalTEXAS12010
San YgnacioTEXAS11985
George WestTEXAS12024
El IndioTEXAS12007
LaredoTEXAS12019
MillettTEXAS12010
Pedro CreekTEXAS12005
Millett 2TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.