BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+132%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.09–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.09–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.070.56
20260.320.080.56
20270.320.080.57
20280.330.090.57
20290.330.090.58

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rock IslandTEXAS52024
Oyster LakeTEXAS42021
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA22011
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA22015
IndianolaTEXAS22022
ChinquapinTEXAS22021
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA11971
GlencoeLOUISIANA12015
EstherLOUISIANA12024
MauriceLOUISIANA12019
KaplanLOUISIANA12011
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12018
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA12019
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA12024
WoodlawnLOUISIANA12011
Forked IslandLOUISIANA12015
Lag AtascosaTEXAS12017
Hinkles FerTEXAS12023
WinnieTEXAS12012
StowellTEXAS12017
DanburyTEXAS12024
KatyTEXAS12011
Moon LakeTEXAS12008
San PedroTEXAS12018
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.