BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Tamaulipan Brushlands has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has collapsed in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 908% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±594.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+908%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.84Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±594.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 908% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±594.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.850.002.1
20260.850.002.1
20270.840.002.1
20280.840.002.1
20290.840.002.1

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pedro CreekTEXAS62010
EncinalTEXAS52010
MillettTEXAS42010
El IndioTEXAS32001
KingsvilleTEXAS22011
RandadoTEXAS22023
Mirando CityTEXAS22023
CatarinaTEXAS22010
La PryorTEXAS22005
HondoTEXAS22023
Encinal 2TEXAS22023
Millett 2TEXAS22022
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS22010
RachalTEXAS12014
Agua NuevaTEXAS12019
San YgnacioTEXAS11977
George WestTEXAS12023
RaymondvilleTEXAS12004
El SauzTEXAS12015
Catarina 2TEXAS12011
GuerraTEXAS12008
SejitaTEXAS12024
LaredoTEXAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.