BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Horned Owl In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertBirds of prey

Great Horned Owl in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-33%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Horned Owl in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Great Horned Owl In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.000.58
20270.280.000.58
20280.280.000.58
20290.280.000.57
20300.280.000.57

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Casa PiedraTEXAS62009
GageNEW-MEXICO42025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO32024
Devils R CynTEXAS32025
MarathonTEXAS32016
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO22021
Black GapTEXAS22025
LongfellowTEXAS22017
AltudaTEXAS22009
ValentineTEXAS21984
CornudasTEXAS22003
GirvinTEXAS22025
Bear MtnTEXAS22025
Ft. StocktonTEXAS22021
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO11978
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12021
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12005
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO11980
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12025
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12019
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12004
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12009
PinonNEW-MEXICO12001
QueenNEW-MEXICO12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.