BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-55%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.000.56
20260.270.000.56
20270.270.000.56
20280.270.000.56
20290.260.000.56

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Casa PiedraTEXAS62009
GageNEW-MEXICO42024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO32024
MarathonTEXAS32016
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO22021
LongfellowTEXAS22017
AltudaTEXAS22009
ValentineTEXAS21984
CornudasTEXAS22003
GirvinTEXAS22011
Devils R CynTEXAS21997
Ft. StocktonTEXAS22021
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO11978
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12022
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12021
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12005
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO11980
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12021
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12019
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12004
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12009
PinonNEW-MEXICO12001
QueenNEW-MEXICO12008
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO12021
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.