BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Horned Owl In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalBirds of prey

Great Horned Owl in Sierra Madre Occidental has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-3%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Horned Owl in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Great Horned Owl In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.63 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.63 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.390.000.95
20270.380.000.94
20280.380.000.94
20290.370.000.93
20300.360.000.93

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RedingtonARIZONA62025
Mt. GrahamARIZONA42025
FlagstaffARIZONA32010
McnealARIZONA32024
DragoonARIZONA32009
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO32024
WilliamsARIZONA22025
Forest LakesARIZONA21997
CutterARIZONA21998
Happy JackARIZONA22017
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22025
PrescottARIZONA12005
Mormon LakeARIZONA11970
PomereneARIZONA12024
San SimonARIZONA12016
Peña BlancaARIZONA12025
PatagoniaARIZONA12024
SunizonaARIZONA11996
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024
Bartlett ResARIZONA12024
AlpineARIZONA11993
AmadoARIZONA12025
SahuaritaARIZONA12012
Clay SpringARIZONA12019
Carr MtnARIZONA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.