BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Horned Owl In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsBirds of prey

Great Horned Owl in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+24%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Horned Owl in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Great Horned Owl In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 219% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.16–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+219%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.7595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 219% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.16–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.440.140.74
20270.440.140.74
20280.450.150.75
20290.450.150.75
20300.460.160.75

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA61998
Casa GrandeARIZONA42023
Ajo 2ARIZONA42019
DatelandARIZONA32021
Cabeza PrietARIZONA32019
WickenburgARIZONA32022
HopeARIZONA31992
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA31988
QuartzsiteARIZONA22015
Gila BendARIZONA22022
Palo VerdeARIZONA22013
ArabyARIZONA22022
Organ PipeARIZONA22022
Cutter 2ARIZONA22018
Hope 2ARIZONA22018
WildroseCALIFORNIA21992
PearblossomCALIFORNIA21991
NelsonNEVADA22024
WikieupARIZONA12024
New RiverARIZONA12014
FlorenceARIZONA11988
LagunaARIZONA12018
AjoARIZONA11970
CoolidgeARIZONA11984
LukevilleARIZONA11980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.