BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±324.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±324.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±324.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.27
20260.130.000.27
20270.120.000.27
20280.120.000.27
20290.120.000.27

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MatthewsMARYLAND52011
HongaMARYLAND42021
Piney NeckMARYLAND32018
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY31996
BrandonVIRGINIA32009
WoodstockCONNECTICUT21980
WestbrookCONNECTICUT21988
WarrenCONNECTICUT22011
BlackbirdDELAWARE22022
La PlataMARYLAND21997
PomfretMARYLAND22014
NortheastMARYLAND22012
MelitotaMARYLAND22024
HarmonyMARYLAND22005
ViennaMARYLAND22022
FruitlandMARYLAND21994
Furnace TownMARYLAND22016
E DennisMASSACHUSETTS21991
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS22024
QuinbyVIRGINIA22009
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA22006
MysticCONNECTICUT12023
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT12005
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT12011
WillimanticCONNECTICUT11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.