BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 497% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+497%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
214Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 497% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.04–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.04–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.030.34
20260.190.030.34
20270.190.040.34
20280.190.040.35
20290.190.040.35

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JarvisburgNORTH-CAROLINA61992
TazewellGEORGIA52023
MadridALABAMA42015
GeorgetownALABAMA42024
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA42017
CongletonNORTH-CAROLINA42024
SweetlipsTENNESSEE42023
GrangeburgALABAMA32023
DolesGEORGIA31998
ShilohGEORGIA32023
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA32021
GenoaNORTH-CAROLINA31994
NixvilleSOUTH-CAROLINA32012
SpragueALABAMA22006
NewtonALABAMA22023
SouthALABAMA22005
EscatawpaALABAMA21990
ElamvilleALABAMA22024
Rock ChapelALABAMA22019
CalebeeALABAMA22003
BlountstownFLORIDA22022
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA21990
Laurel HillFLORIDA22024
Hildreth 2FLORIDA22024
OkefenokeeGEORGIA21983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.