BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+167%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.05–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.05–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.040.34
20260.190.040.35
20270.200.040.35
20280.200.040.35
20290.200.050.35

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MoonMISSISSIPPI32015
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI32022
West TylerARKANSAS21983
HarrisburgARKANSAS21989
BrousvilleLOUISIANA22024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA22024
ConcordLOUISIANA22017
Port AllenLOUISIANA22000
IsolaMISSISSIPPI22007
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI22018
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE22014
EudoraARKANSAS12011
HughesARKANSAS12023
South BendARKANSAS12006
AugustaARKANSAS11998
SaffellARKANSAS12012
MaynardARKANSAS12000
EnglandARKANSAS12021
UlmARKANSAS12018
WilsonARKANSAS12001
Augusta 2ARKANSAS12014
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12021
BardwellKENTUCKY11999
CarlisleLOUISIANA11988
FreetownLOUISIANA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.