BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Horned Owl In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasBirds of prey

Great Horned Owl in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-55%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Great Horned Owl In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±150.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.17
20270.050.000.17
20280.050.000.17
20290.050.000.17
20300.050.000.17

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magazine MtnARKANSAS42013
AshdownARKANSAS22007
CrowsARKANSAS21990
HollywoodARKANSAS21971
WaldronARKANSAS21996
SimsARKANSAS22016
LockesburgARKANSAS22010
NanceARKANSAS22021
Poyen 2ARKANSAS22016
Fort PolkLOUISIANA21970
TroutLOUISIANA22008
Big CedarOKLAHOMA21987
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA22001
LivingstonTEXAS22025
Chandler 2TEXAS22018
Old MiloARKANSAS11977
RamseyARKANSAS11992
Locust BayouARKANSAS12002
StampsARKANSAS12002
HopeARKANSAS11986
StarkARKANSAS12007
Coal HillARKANSAS12007
MassardARKANSAS11997
De RidderLOUISIANA11991
DerryLOUISIANA11973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.