BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Horned Owl In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionBirds of prey

Great Horned Owl in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+171%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Horned Owl in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Great Horned Owl In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.21
20270.080.000.21
20280.080.000.21
20290.080.000.21
20300.080.000.21

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St CharlesMICHIGAN51978
NapoleonOHIO42025
PrincetonWISCONSIN42011
AshbyMINNESOTA32005
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN32011
OmroWISCONSIN31999
Beaver DamWISCONSIN32021
Cherry ValILLINOIS21995
PackertownINDIANA21992
LawrenceMICHIGAN22025
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN21988
EdwardsMINNESOTA21973
New LondonMINNESOTA22018
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA22024
N BaltimoreOHIO21996
ManitowocWISCONSIN22023
ViroquaWISCONSIN22010
KendallWISCONSIN22001
Rolling PrWISCONSIN22014
EdenWISCONSIN22018
WiotaWISCONSIN22006
HebronWISCONSIN22021
MerideanWISCONSIN22010
Buena VistaWISCONSIN22019
KielWISCONSIN22006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.