BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Horned Owl In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Great Horned Owl in Badlands and Prairies has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-86%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has collapsed in Badlands and Prairies: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Horned Owl In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.42
20260.080.000.41
20270.070.000.41
20280.070.000.40
20290.060.000.40

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DwyerWYOMING91992
UptonWYOMING42024
LocateMONTANA22016
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA22024
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA21996
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA22017
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA21983
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA22019
MayoworthWYOMING22010
HighwoodMONTANA12023
LeroyMONTANA12004
RoyMONTANA12023
BrusettMONTANA12023
JordanMONTANA12024
CircleMONTANA12011
SavageMONTANA12018
Two DotMONTANA12022
ShawmutMONTANA12002
FlatwillowMONTANA12006
IngomarMONTANA12008
ForsythMONTANA12019
WebsterMONTANA12023
Reed PointMONTANA12016
BrandenbergMONTANA11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.