BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Horned Owl In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauBirds of prey

Great Horned Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-51%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Horned Owl has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Great Horned Owl In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Horned Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.16
20270.060.000.16
20280.060.000.15
20290.060.000.15
20300.060.000.15

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Great Horned Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BlandingUTAH62017
Moon PassCOLORADO32019
HatchUTAH32016
Navajo TrailARIZONA22015
MoffatCOLORADO22014
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO21974
CastletonCOLORADO22021
Pinos CreekCOLORADO21990
Pleasant ViewCOLORADO22021
Colona 2COLORADO22018
PiedraCOLORADO21997
MoscaCOLORADO22023
South ForkCOLORADO22014
WestcliffeCOLORADO22019
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO22024
CebollaNEW-MEXICO21997
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO22007
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO21999
MountainairNEW-MEXICO22015
Salt Lake 2NEW-MEXICO22022
Grizzly RdgeUTAH22017
GooseberryUTAH21996
Dixie NfUTAH22010
Book RidgeUTAH22006
KamasUTAH22013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.