BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Gray Owl Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Great Gray Owl in Alaska has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+48%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Gray Owl Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Gray Owl in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Great Gray Owl Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Great Gray Owl in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Gray Owl in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.05
20260.030.000.05
20270.030.000.05
20280.030.000.05
20290.030.000.05

Great Gray Owl Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Great Gray Owl in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle120242017
Circle120221996
Mud River120191997
Nabesna Road120112011
Kuskulana119981998
Lake Louise119981998
Tatalina120011995
Whale Pass120052005
Hather Creek119941994
Nicholai Sl120212006
Kanuti Lake120212016

Great Gray Owl Population Trend in Other States

californiaidahominnesotamontanaoregonwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.