BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWetland birds

Great Egret in Great Basin has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-52%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has fallen sharply in Great Basin: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Great Egret In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Great Basin is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±244.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±244.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Great Basin is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±244.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.560.001.2
20270.560.001.2
20280.560.001.2
20290.560.001.2
20300.560.001.2

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Great Egret in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DorrisCALIFORNIA442019
Modoc Point 2OREGON392025
Fish LakeOREGON252022
Modoc PointOREGON172018
Moses LakeWASHINGTON172021
Carson RiverNEVADA72005
Trout CreekOREGON52000
Bear RiverUTAH52025
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA41999
HikoNEVADA42023
Warner VallyOREGON42023
MacdoelCALIFORNIA32018
PrincetonOREGON31985
Harney LakeOREGON32024
CallaoUTAH32025
LikelyCALIFORNIA22025
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA22021
UmatillaOREGON22022
MerrillOREGON22018
Catlow RimOREGON22025
Scootney ReservoirWASHINGTON22025
NubieberCALIFORNIA12005
IngallsCALIFORNIA11992
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA12025
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.