BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsWetland birds

Great Egret in Tamaulipan Brushlands has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+23%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Great Egret In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 292% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±911.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+292%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±911.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 292% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±911.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.006.6
20261.60.006.6
20271.60.006.6
20281.60.006.6
20291.60.006.6

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Great Egret in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KingsvilleTEXAS72019
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS71997
Millett 2TEXAS62021
RachalTEXAS41982
EncinalTEXAS32008
George WestTEXAS22024
CatarinaTEXAS22009
Catarina 3TEXAS22024
ProgresoTEXAS22011
ZapataTEXAS11987
RandadoTEXAS11985
San YgnacioTEXAS11982
HondoTEXAS12021
RaymondvilleTEXAS12024
El SauzTEXAS12005
Catarina 2TEXAS12014
Encinal 2TEXAS12022
SejitaTEXAS12013
LaredoTEXAS12014
MillettTEXAS11999
Pedro CreekTEXAS12010
HeidelbergTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.