BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertWetland birds

Great Egret in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+75%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Great Egret In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 28% by 2027 — from 0.07 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 28% by 2027 — from 0.07 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.060.000.34
20240.060.000.34
20250.060.000.34
20260.050.000.33
20270.050.000.33

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Great Egret in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS32019
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO22019
MesillaNEW-MEXICO11999
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO12022
ComstockTEXAS12022
LongfellowTEXAS11999
Bear MtnTEXAS12003
PresidioTEXAS12006
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS12001
CanutilloTEXAS12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.