BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsWetland birds

Great Egret in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-63%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has fallen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Great Egret In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.001.9
20270.320.001.9
20280.300.001.9
20290.280.001.8
20300.260.001.8

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Great Egret in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrawleyCALIFORNIA132012
BeattyNEVADA52014
LagunaARIZONA42013
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA42025
Havasu LakeCALIFORNIA41973
DatelandARIZONA32024
Casa GrandeARIZONA32019
NilandCALIFORNIA32025
Ash MeadowsNEVADA32014
Red RockARIZONA21999
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA22025
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA22018
Cibola LakeARIZONA12016
Palo VerdeARIZONA12013
ArabyARIZONA12022
HopeARIZONA12009
Red Rock 2ARIZONA12019
OnyxCALIFORNIA11996
Parker DamCALIFORNIA11973
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA12010
Lone PineCALIFORNIA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.