BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Great Egret in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Egret In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.50.0014
20266.40.0014
20276.40.0014
20286.30.0014
20296.20.0014

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Great Egret in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano 2FLORIDA2372011
SandyFLORIDA602015
DeanvilleFLORIDA442019
Key LargoFLORIDA431990
Merritt IslFLORIDA412011
Wildernes PkFLORIDA382014
AlvaFLORIDA332023
CorbettFLORIDA322024
Mabel 2FLORIDA262019
Devils GardnFLORIDA242024
ShawanoFLORIDA232002
SalvistaFLORIDA221979
TamiamiFLORIDA201974
Winter GardnFLORIDA192019
Holey LandFLORIDA192024
RomeoFLORIDA152024
WebbFLORIDA152024
Weaver StnFLORIDA142019
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA132014
ClewistonFLORIDA112023
IndiantownFLORIDA102017
DavieFLORIDA102017
CrewsvilleFLORIDA102023
AndytownFLORIDA91998
HomesteadFLORIDA92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.