BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWetland birds

Great Egret in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 941% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+941%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Great Egret In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±153%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.34
20270.150.000.34
20280.150.000.34
20290.150.000.34
20300.150.000.35

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Great Egret in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RiversideALABAMA372013
GreensportALABAMA82025
ShannonGEORGIA81995
StevensonALABAMA62024
Signal MtnTENNESSEE52025
Pine GroveALABAMA42025
KymulgaALABAMA32025
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE32006
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA32013
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA22011
SummittALABAMA11967
Sunny EveALABAMA11990
Smyer LakeALABAMA12023
MaytownALABAMA12013
GuntersvilleALABAMA12017
ChildersburgALABAMA11998
OdenvilleALABAMA12001
BrooksvilleALABAMA12012
LakeviewALABAMA12008
ChoccoloccoALABAMA12019
TalladegaALABAMA12025
DoverNEW-JERSEY12018
RamseysburgNEW-JERSEY11998
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA12000
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.