BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWetland birds

Great Egret in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 868% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+868%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 868% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Great Egret In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 148% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+148%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±177.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 148% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.34
20260.150.000.34
20270.150.000.35
20280.150.000.35
20290.160.000.35

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Great Egret in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RiversideALABAMA372013
ShannonGEORGIA81995
StevensonALABAMA62024
GreensportALABAMA42024
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE32006
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA32013
TalladegaALABAMA22024
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA22011
SummittALABAMA11967
Pine GroveALABAMA12024
Sunny EveALABAMA11990
Smyer LakeALABAMA12023
MaytownALABAMA12013
GuntersvilleALABAMA12017
ChildersburgALABAMA11998
OdenvilleALABAMA12001
BrooksvilleALABAMA12012
LakeviewALABAMA12008
ChoccoloccoALABAMA12019
KymulgaALABAMA12023
DoverNEW-JERSEY12018
RamseysburgNEW-JERSEY11998
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA12000
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA12006
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.