BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Great Egret in Southeastern Coastal Plain has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
306Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.66–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.66–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.66–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.603.7
20262.20.623.7
20272.20.633.8
20282.20.653.8
20292.20.663.8

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Great Egret in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GrangeburgALABAMA432024
Eglin A.F.B.FLORIDA391997
MaconMISSISSIPPI382024
CorinthMISSISSIPPI332024
FairviewALABAMA272024
Gainestown FerryALABAMA262015
Port St Joe 2FLORIDA222018
Trace HindsMISSISSIPPI212022
Mossy HeadFLORIDA202010
Hildreth 2FLORIDA162011
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA161979
MadridALABAMA142021
BennettsvilleSOUTH-CAROLINA132017
NecaiseMISSISSIPPI122016
Jarvisburg 2NORTH-CAROLINA122022
AutaugavilleALABAMA112019
Trace SouthMISSISSIPPI112010
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA102006
St. ElmoALABAMA102021
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA102004
HawkinsvilleGEORGIA102024
ShilohGEORGIA102024
Lake MaryMISSISSIPPI101990
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA102023
WedgeworthALABAMA92023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.