BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWetland birds

Great Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 445% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+445%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 445% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Egret In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 169% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 6.0–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+169%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±190%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 169% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 6.0–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025194.933
2026195.233
2027205.534
2028205.734
2029206.034

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Great Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DeventerMISSOURI1992019
RamahLOUISIANA722024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA521986
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI332018
River RoadLOUISIANA322024
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI292024
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI271994
IsolaMISSISSIPPI222022
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI192024
BerwickLOUISIANA182018
HaytiMISSOURI182021
WilsonARKANSAS162022
FrogmoreLOUISIANA152024
South BendARKANSAS122023
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA122024
PawpawTENNESSEE122012
KraemerLOUISIANA112024
TchulaMISSISSIPPI111971
Morgan CityLOUISIANA102022
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE102023
LaroseLOUISIANA91992
KeystoneLOUISIANA82013
RayvilleLOUISIANA82008
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI82024
KennettMISSOURI82023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.