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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWetland birds

Great Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 448% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+448%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 448% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Egret In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 200% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 5.0–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±220%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+200%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±220%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 200% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 5.0–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±220%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026184.133
2027194.333
2028194.533
2029194.833
2030195.034

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Great Egret in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI532025
Morgan CityLOUISIANA521986
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI332018
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI312025
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI271994
IsolaMISSISSIPPI222022
RamahLOUISIANA202025
BerwickLOUISIANA182018
HaytiMISSOURI182021
BrousvilleLOUISIANA172025
South BendARKANSAS152025
PawpawTENNESSEE122012
KraemerLOUISIANA112025
TchulaMISSISSIPPI111971
Morgan CityLOUISIANA102022
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI102025
LaroseLOUISIANA91992
KeystoneLOUISIANA82013
RayvilleLOUISIANA82008
River RoadLOUISIANA82025
KennettMISSOURI82023
GillettARKANSAS72025
UlmARKANSAS72025
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY72025
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.