BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasWetland birds

Great Egret in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+66%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has risen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Egret In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 171% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+171%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 171% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.004.8
20262.00.004.8
20272.10.004.8
20282.10.004.8
20292.10.004.8

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Great Egret in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NatchitochesLOUISIANA1851991
CypressLOUISIANA451987
Neches BithTEXAS272017
HavanaARKANSAS222021
Mount UnionLOUISIANA172022
New WaverlyTEXAS132019
FishvilleLOUISIANA122014
DerryLOUISIANA101989
Chandler 2TEXAS102023
SpringhillARKANSAS92022
De QuincyLOUISIANA62021
StampsARKANSAS52024
EvelynLOUISIANA52024
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA52021
HopeARKANSAS42024
De RidderLOUISIANA42017
Fort PolkLOUISIANA41975
NatchezLOUISIANA42024
CanadianOKLAHOMA42017
Town BluffTEXAS42024
AthensTEXAS42023
FillmoreLOUISIANA31989
Derry 2LOUISIANA32023
LinvilleLOUISIANA32024
Turkey CreekLOUISIANA31998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.