BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsWetland birds

Great Egret in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 41× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

41×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Great Egret In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 70% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±203.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 70% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.002.2
20271.00.002.2
20281.10.002.3
20291.10.002.3
20301.10.002.3

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Great Egret in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler DamALABAMA2782025
MorganfieldKENTUCKY232025
PulaskiILLINOIS122025
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA112009
CumbackINDIANA102021
PimentoINDIANA92025
KarnakILLINOIS82025
RoyaltonILLINOIS42025
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS32014
ElkmontALABAMA22025
TrianaALABAMA22012
NewberryINDIANA22023
CantonKENTUCKY22025
SwedenMISSOURI22022
BaronOKLAHOMA22023
SwaimALABAMA12003
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA12014
Carter GroveALABAMA12019
ZionARKANSAS12005
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS12014
RussellARKANSAS12021
BremenILLINOIS12025
BelknapILLINOIS12025
SanduskyILLINOIS12023
Indian SpgsINDIANA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.