BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsWetland birds

Great Egret in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

17×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Great Egret In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 861% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+861%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.84Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±196.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 861% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.770.001.7
20260.790.001.7
20270.800.001.7
20280.820.001.7
20290.840.001.7

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Great Egret in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler DamALABAMA1892023
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA112009
CumbackINDIANA102021
RoyaltonILLINOIS92023
BelknapILLINOIS42024
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS32014
ElkmontALABAMA22021
TrianaALABAMA22012
NewberryINDIANA22023
CantonKENTUCKY22024
SwedenMISSOURI22022
BaronOKLAHOMA22023
SwaimALABAMA12003
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA12014
Carter GroveALABAMA12019
ZionARKANSAS12005
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS12014
RussellARKANSAS12021
PulaskiILLINOIS12023
BremenILLINOIS12022
SanduskyILLINOIS12023
KarnakILLINOIS12023
PimentoINDIANA12018
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY11967
JoyKENTUCKY12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.