BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWetland birds

Great Egret in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has increased: up 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Great Egret In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 98% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+98%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 98% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.610.001.3
20260.620.001.3
20270.630.001.3
20280.640.001.3
20290.650.001.3

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Great Egret in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlbertKANSAS832023
RandlettOKLAHOMA452005
GoesselKANSAS102002
HaskellTEXAS102024
SicklesOKLAHOMA82021
CoopertonOKLAHOMA52024
ErickOKLAHOMA42017
WakitaOKLAHOMA42015
WoodwardOKLAHOMA32011
BerwetKANSAS22024
SusankKANSAS22002
Crescent LkNEBRASKA22011
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA22009
RosstonOKLAHOMA21999
JetOKLAHOMA22024
PhrosoOKLAHOMA22023
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA22022
GraybackTEXAS22010
WellingtonKANSAS12024
DaltonKANSAS12005
BuckeyeKANSAS12000
MinneapolisKANSAS11994
SolomonKANSAS12001
BelvidereNEBRASKA12005
KennedyNEBRASKA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.