BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+102%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Blue Heron In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.96–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.96–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.96–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.60.954.2
20272.60.954.2
20282.60.954.2
20292.60.964.2
20302.60.964.2

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS282025
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA151982
Bayside 3TEXAS112025
MauriceLOUISIANA82024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA72019
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA72011
Bayside 2TEXAS72004
WoodlawnLOUISIANA62021
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA52025
Padre Island PaisTEXAS52015
HackberryLOUISIANA42016
Grand IsleLOUISIANA42019
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA32017
Forked IslandLOUISIANA32025
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA32011
Loyola BeachTEXAS32009
Moon LakeTEXAS32011
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS32023
LafitteLOUISIANA21991
GlencoeLOUISIANA22018
EstherLOUISIANA22025
KaplanLOUISIANA22023
RichardLOUISIANA22025
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA22019
Vinton 2LOUISIANA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.