BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Tamaulipan Brushlands has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-19%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.000.54
20260.150.000.53
20270.150.000.53
20280.150.000.53
20290.150.000.53

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ZapataTEXAS31982
DilleyTEXAS22023
Millett 2TEXAS22022
RachalTEXAS11972
KingsvilleTEXAS12019
RandadoTEXAS12019
Mirando CityTEXAS12014
EncinalTEXAS12005
San YgnacioTEXAS11972
George WestTEXAS12013
CatarinaTEXAS12006
La PryorTEXAS12017
HondoTEXAS12024
RaymondvilleTEXAS12004
GuerraTEXAS11996
Encinal 2TEXAS12018
ProgresoTEXAS12011
SejitaTEXAS12015
LaredoTEXAS12021
HeidelbergTEXAS12024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.