BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Chihuahuan Desert has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+56%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has risen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Great Blue Heron In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.130.000.39
20250.130.000.39
20260.130.000.39
20270.130.000.39
20280.130.000.39

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS32019
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO22019
Black GapTEXAS22019
PresidioTEXAS22023
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO11974
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12023
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12019
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12023
MesillaNEW-MEXICO11997
PinonNEW-MEXICO12001
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12009
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO12022
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO12005
ComstockTEXAS12006
LongfellowTEXAS11975
Devils R CynTEXAS12015
ToyahvaleTEXAS12001
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS12000
CanutilloTEXAS12016
Dove Mtn.TEXAS12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.