BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+121%Since 1973
29Routes In Region
53Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Great Blue Heron has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029
0.34Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.395% range
±75%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.360.001.4
20260.360.001.4
20270.350.001.4
20280.350.001.4
20290.340.001.3

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA102024
Palo VerdeARIZONA62013
NilandCALIFORNIA42024
Alamo Res.ARIZONA32016
IvanpahCALIFORNIA32007
Cutter 2ARIZONA22018
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA22013
BlytheCALIFORNIA22003
Ash MeadowsNEVADA22016
New RiverARIZONA12000
FlorenceARIZONA11970
LagunaARIZONA12023
CoolidgeARIZONA11977
RivieraARIZONA12023
Cibola LakeARIZONA12018
ArabyARIZONA12022
Casa GrandeARIZONA12023
Willow Beach 2ARIZONA12017
OnyxCALIFORNIA11992
Calif CityCALIFORNIA11996
Parker DamCALIFORNIA12007
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA12023
DarwinCALIFORNIA12012
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA11991
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.