BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Blue Heron In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.003.2
20271.40.003.2
20281.30.003.2
20291.30.003.1
20301.30.003.1

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawanoFLORIDA252002
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA202014
CorbettFLORIDA142024
Shawano 2FLORIDA132011
Merritt IslFLORIDA122011
SandyFLORIDA112015
Weaver StnFLORIDA92019
Wildernes PkFLORIDA82014
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA62004
Holey LandFLORIDA62025
Ridge HarborFLORIDA62025
IndiantownFLORIDA52017
TamiamiFLORIDA51974
WebbFLORIDA52025
ChildsFLORIDA42018
St LucieFLORIDA42025
AripekaFLORIDA42025
ClewistonFLORIDA42023
San AntonioFLORIDA32023
Polk CityFLORIDA32025
Devils GardnFLORIDA32024
Mabel 2FLORIDA32025
Lake BuffumFLORIDA32024
CrewsvilleFLORIDA32023
MicanopyFLORIDA21989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.