BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.003.3
20261.40.003.3
20271.40.003.2
20281.30.003.2
20291.30.003.2

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawanoFLORIDA252002
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA202014
CorbettFLORIDA142024
Shawano 2FLORIDA132011
Merritt IslFLORIDA122011
SandyFLORIDA112015
Weaver StnFLORIDA92019
Wildernes PkFLORIDA82014
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA62004
IndiantownFLORIDA52017
TamiamiFLORIDA51974
WebbFLORIDA52024
ChildsFLORIDA42018
PinecrestFLORIDA42024
St LucieFLORIDA42024
ClewistonFLORIDA42023
Holey LandFLORIDA42024
San AntonioFLORIDA32023
Devils GardnFLORIDA32024
Mabel 2FLORIDA32019
Lake BuffumFLORIDA32024
Sandy 2FLORIDA32024
CrewsvilleFLORIDA32023
MicanopyFLORIDA21989
ScottsmoorFLORIDA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.