BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 639% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+639%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 639% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Blue Heron In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 264% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.00–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±242.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+264%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±242.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 264% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.00–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±242.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.90.008.1
20263.90.008.1
20273.90.008.1
20283.90.008.1
20294.00.008.2

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI171994
HarrisburgARKANSAS92012
KraemerLOUISIANA72023
PawpawTENNESSEE72012
EnglandARKANSAS62024
BardwellKENTUCKY62003
FreetownLOUISIANA62009
Morgan CityLOUISIANA61986
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA62019
DundeeMISSISSIPPI62022
HaytiMISSOURI62021
IsolaMISSISSIPPI52022
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI52024
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI52018
RayvilleLOUISIANA42007
Morgan CityLOUISIANA42022
River RoadLOUISIANA42021
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI42018
DeventerMISSOURI42023
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI42024
South BendARKANSAS32023
SaffellARKANSAS32019
MaynardARKANSAS32024
BelairLOUISIANA32024
BerwickLOUISIANA32018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.