BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 92% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+92%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.88Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 92% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.910.002.1
20270.900.002.1
20280.900.002.1
20290.890.002.1
20300.880.002.1

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NatchitochesLOUISIANA131991
EastonTEXAS92013
CypressLOUISIANA81987
PhillipsOKLAHOMA52025
AthensTEXAS52024
ChandlerTEXAS52004
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA42021
RamseyARKANSAS31997
CrowsARKANSAS31990
PoyenARKANSAS32003
Coal HillARKANSAS32023
HaughtonLOUISIANA32025
McalesterOKLAHOMA31991
CanadianOKLAHOMA32017
Chandler 2TEXAS32024
StampsARKANSAS22024
StarkARKANSAS22024
LockesburgARKANSAS22018
NanceARKANSAS22015
EastonLOUISIANA21990
ClayLOUISIANA22016
ManyLOUISIANA21990
LinvilleLOUISIANA22015
GraysonLOUISIANA22011
IndianolaOKLAHOMA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.