BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

20×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
158Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Blue Heron In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 142% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.5–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+142%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 142% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.5–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.33.0
20262.21.43.1
20272.31.43.1
20282.31.43.1
20292.31.53.2

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler DamALABAMA1142023
TrianaALABAMA182012
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE82023
PimentoINDIANA72024
EastviewKENTUCKY62024
CascadeMISSOURI62023
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA52014
MillersburgINDIANA52019
Kings MtnKENTUCKY52024
MorganfieldKENTUCKY52024
PulaskiMISSOURI52021
Clear SpringINDIANA42024
Bays ForkKENTUCKY42019
RiverqueenKENTUCKY42023
CourtlandALABAMA32021
BremenILLINOIS32023
SpencerINDIANA32024
CumbackINDIANA32016
VevayINDIANA32022
CantonKENTUCKY32024
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY32024
McbrayerKENTUCKY32024
HodgenvilleKENTUCKY32003
DixonKENTUCKY32024
PleasurevillKENTUCKY32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.