BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

21×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
158Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Blue Heron In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 1.5–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 1.5–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.43.1
20272.31.43.1
20282.31.43.1
20292.31.53.2
20302.41.53.2

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler DamALABAMA1092025
TrianaALABAMA182012
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE82023
KeysburgKENTUCKY72025
MorganfieldKENTUCKY72025
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA52014
YorkILLINOIS52025
PimentoINDIANA52025
MillersburgINDIANA52019
Kings MtnKENTUCKY52024
Clear SpringINDIANA42024
Bays ForkKENTUCKY42019
RiverqueenKENTUCKY42023
CourtlandALABAMA32021
SpencerINDIANA32024
CumbackINDIANA32016
NewberryINDIANA32025
CantonKENTUCKY32024
McbrayerKENTUCKY32024
HodgenvilleKENTUCKY32003
HudsonKENTUCKY32025
DixonKENTUCKY32024
PleasurevillKENTUCKY32024
ClementineMISSOURI31996
ReedsMISSOURI32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.