BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 223% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+223%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
275Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 223% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Blue Heron In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.4–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.4–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.33.0
20262.21.43.0
20272.21.43.1
20282.21.43.1
20292.31.43.1

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DecaturINDIANA82024
StetMISSOURI81995
BucyrusKANSAS72024
Ash CreekMINNESOTA72024
HarrisonvilleMISSOURI72023
GulfportILLINOIS62023
FairburyILLINOIS62024
GridleyILLINOIS62024
BotkinsOHIO62019
HumboldtILLINOIS52022
ColumbiaILLINOIS52023
BeaucoupILLINOIS52024
FloraILLINOIS52024
GaryINDIANA51999
MonticelloINDIANA52024
ThorntownINDIANA52024
MelroseKANSAS52023
SenecaKANSAS52022
FilleyMISSOURI52024
McfallMISSOURI52023
KunkleOHIO52024
WayneILLINOIS42024
MelroseILLINOIS41999
ConcordILLINOIS42023
JanesvilleILLINOIS42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.