BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies has risen sharply: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has risen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Blue Heron In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.88–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.88–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.842.9
20271.90.852.9
20281.90.862.9
20291.90.872.9
20301.90.882.9

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SadlerTEXAS122025
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA62025
OlaTEXAS62025
HenriettaTEXAS62022
Gambill Ref.TEXAS52025
Oak Grove 2TEXAS42025
CarlosTEXAS42025
LocoOKLAHOMA31985
ChoctawOKLAHOMA32023
NobleOKLAHOMA32024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS32025
GauseTEXAS31997
Massey LakeTEXAS32024
OakwoodTEXAS31995
ThorntonTEXAS31984
Glen RoseTEXAS32025
GainesvilleTEXAS32024
WalburgTEXAS32025
FanninTEXAS32010
BurtonTEXAS32025
BonnerTEXAS32025
Wills PointTEXAS32023
CleburneTEXAS32025
BeggsOKLAHOMA22023
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA21977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.