BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has risen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Blue Heron In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 84% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.88–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+84%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 84% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.88–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.852.9
20261.90.862.9
20271.90.872.9
20281.90.882.9
20291.90.882.9

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HenriettaTEXAS62022
MegargelTEXAS62023
SadlerTEXAS42024
BurtonTEXAS42024
CleburneTEXAS42024
LocoOKLAHOMA31985
ChoctawOKLAHOMA32023
NobleOKLAHOMA32024
DuncanOKLAHOMA32024
GauseTEXAS31997
Massey LakeTEXAS32024
OakwoodTEXAS31995
ThorntonTEXAS31984
GainesvilleTEXAS32024
FanninTEXAS32010
Wills PointTEXAS32023
GreenvilleTEXAS32018
BeggsOKLAHOMA22023
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA21977
HeyburnOKLAHOMA22022
SkiatookOKLAHOMA22019
SchroederTEXAS21996
MuldoonTEXAS22024
Lone OakTEXAS22022
Oak GroveTEXAS21999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.