BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Shortgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+58%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has risen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Great Blue Heron In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.01–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±149.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.01–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.360.000.72
20270.360.000.73
20280.370.010.73
20290.370.010.73
20300.370.010.73

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FlemingCOLORADO92003
Wildhorse LCOLORADO52000
YoderWYOMING52025
GilpinCOLORADO42016
GroverCOLORADO32013
HaswellCOLORADO31999
NeegrandeCOLORADO32019
FlaglerCOLORADO32003
CrawfordNEBRASKA32024
FrionaTEXAS32001
PanhandleTEXAS32025
PinneoCOLORADO21993
HudsonCOLORADO22025
VillegreenCOLORADO22019
Prospect ValCOLORADO21998
WinonaKANSAS22017
Murray LakeNEBRASKA22025
Agate 2NEBRASKA22024
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA22024
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO22001
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO22025
HardestyOKLAHOMA22007
HookerOKLAHOMA22025
CircleTEXAS22012
DalhartTEXAS22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.