BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Shortgrass Prairie has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+12%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.01–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±172.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.01–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.000.73
20260.370.000.73
20270.370.010.73
20280.370.010.73
20290.370.010.74

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FlemingCOLORADO92003
Wildhorse LCOLORADO52000
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO52023
GilpinCOLORADO42016
HudsonCOLORADO32024
GroverCOLORADO32013
HaswellCOLORADO31999
NeegrandeCOLORADO32019
FlaglerCOLORADO32003
ElbertCOLORADO32019
Murray LakeNEBRASKA32024
CrawfordNEBRASKA32024
FrionaTEXAS32001
PinneoCOLORADO21993
VillegreenCOLORADO22019
Prospect ValCOLORADO21998
WinonaKANSAS22017
Agate 2NEBRASKA22024
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA22024
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO22001
HardestyOKLAHOMA22007
CircleTEXAS22012
DalhartTEXAS22019
BriggsdaleCOLORADO11994
KiowaCOLORADO12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.