BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Badlands and Prairies has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 88% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.04–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+88%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 88% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.04–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.410.040.77
20260.400.040.77
20270.400.040.77
20280.400.040.77
20290.400.040.77

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St XavierMONTANA102010
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA72019
LuskWYOMING72000
BrandenbergMONTANA62015
WyarnoWYOMING62017
SeelyWYOMING52000
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA42011
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA42021
WebsterMONTANA32016
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA32003
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA32023
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA32021
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA32019
Soda WellWYOMING32019
FlatwillowMONTANA22008
ForsythMONTANA22018
PowdervilleMONTANA22022
LindsayMONTANA22018
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA22024
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA21989
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA22019
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA22019
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA22009
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.