BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Badlands and Prairies has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.03–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.03–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.400.030.76
20270.400.030.76
20280.390.030.76
20290.390.030.76
20300.390.030.76

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St XavierMONTANA102010
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA72019
LuskWYOMING72000
BrandenbergMONTANA62015
WyarnoWYOMING62017
SeelyWYOMING52000
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA42011
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA42021
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA32003
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA32025
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA32021
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA32019
Soda WellWYOMING32019
FlatwillowMONTANA22008
ForsythMONTANA22018
PowdervilleMONTANA22025
LindsayMONTANA22018
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA22025
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA22024
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA22025
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA22025
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA21989
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA22019
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA22019
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA22009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.