BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 478% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+478%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 0.25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.17–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 0.25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.17–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.150.53
20270.350.160.53
20280.350.170.54
20290.360.170.54
20300.360.170.55

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BufordCOLORADO52025
Cochetopa PassCOLORADO52022
Wray GulchCOLORADO42025
WaldenCOLORADO42019
CortezCOLORADO42007
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO42016
JensenUTAH42011
NotomUTAH42024
FalfaCOLORADO32025
Alton 2UTAH32025
YampaCOLORADO22018
HarmonyCOLORADO22019
Cheesman LkCOLORADO22016
MoffatCOLORADO22023
Lost LakeCOLORADO22005
DoylevilleCOLORADO22024
GuffeyCOLORADO22023
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO22024
Deadman Rd.COLORADO22025
Steamboat L.COLORADO22025
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO22025
WestcliffeCOLORADO22025
Cortez 2COLORADO22016
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO22007
Cerro VerdeNEW-MEXICO22016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.