BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+86%Since 1968
85Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Great Blue Heron has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.22–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2029
1.8Projected 2029 index
0.22–3.495% range
±115.3%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.80.203.4
20261.80.203.4
20271.80.213.4
20281.80.213.4
20291.80.223.4

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
RomulusNEW-YORK172000
PeruOHIO141978
HighlandNEW-YORK92022
WaddingtonNEW-YORK81998
West SenecaNEW-YORK52004
BalmatNEW-YORK51997
New SomersetOHIO51993
SheridanNEW-YORK41998
LenoxOHIO42024
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA42024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK32024
NashvilleNEW-YORK32018
Alder CreekNEW-YORK32004
EllenburgNEW-YORK32006
NaplesNEW-YORK32024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK32024
N VictoryNEW-YORK31969
MiddlefieldOHIO32017
HebronOHIO32024
MacdougallNEW-YORK22023
BranchportNEW-YORK22023
HamburgNEW-YORK22023
CastileNEW-YORK22024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK22024
ClintonNEW-YORK22013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.